Indigenous Investors Weekly Insights!
Top 3 well curated stories from the stable of Indigenous Investors incase you missed them. These can range from finance to sports, depends on what made the headlines. Stay tuned.
Let us share a little secret with you today.
We are living in a time where the incumbent large company like Reliance and a relatively new company like Blinkit & Swiggy are fighting for the same Indian consumer.
Let this feeling sink in a little as you start reading our 3 weekly insights.
This week, we cover the following:
Reliance Industries comes with a good set of numbers, Jio & Retail picks pace!
Bajaj Twins sets the tone for the Financial Services
Zomato comes out with some strong numbers
It’s been 10 days since the dread terror attack in Pehelgam and our thoughts are still with the families of victims who suffered for no reason whatsoever.
Our Prime Minister Narendra Modi took a historic decision of cancelling the Indus Water Treaty and asking all Pakistani nationals to go back. In simple terms, Pakistan got the treatment of enemy state (frankly they deserved it).
Since then, it’s hard to believe the number of illegal Bangladeshi and Pakistani people residing in India. Some even had their fake Aadhar cards, while some people cast their votes, while others were simply making maximum use of all the Government schemes. An infiltration at this level cannot be tolerated under any circumstances.
These illegal immigrants are not just taking away your space, they are staying here at the expense of the taxpayers money. By flaunting their fake IDs, they are taking benefit of every government scheme they can - absolving the native citizens of the opportunities. They take away your jobs, and the ones who don’t work take away your peace.
It is safe to say that the government’s promise of Aadhar being “safe” has turned out to be as fake as those documents in the hands of these immigrants. A crackdown to the lowest level possible is required by all authorities to get rid of these elements.
While there is a group of intellectual people who compare Modi’s governance to the style of Mrs Indira Gandhi who would have booted out Pakistan in 10 days, they fail to understand that the level of infiltration of Pakistani nationals in India.
In our opinion, Modi government took a measured approach of first cleaning these cockroaches out of our homes and then fight the war on enemy ground.
Management schools should learn from the incredible statesman approach and resilience in the middle of a storm that our Government has shown.
Stock markets too are holding up!
Here’s how broader indices performed this week:
If you want us to publish some sector specific indices that you would like to read on a weekly basis, please write to us in the comment below.
Markets have considerably remained flat for the week. There hasn’t been a movement that showcases fear from the investors.
A reason we believe is that Modi government has shown the World that it won’t go to War in haste. Yes, we will retaliate but on our own terms and not how enemy wants. Our only prayer to the government and all of you is that with passing time, DO NOT forget what was done to us.
Internationally this act of courage has brought a lot of respect for India and we are sure that more investments will come our way. Because India shows tremendous stability even though it’s the largest democracy in the World at the moment and has a lot of potential.
It’s our State level Politicians who need to outgrow this petty politics and start seriously deploying capital towards development of infrastructure and showcase exemplary governance so that large companies can feel comfortable in setting up their operations here.
One can only hope!
So let’s get into our first story
Story #1: Reliance Industries comes with a good set of numbers, Jio & Retail picks pace!
Reliance basically draws itself into 4 categories
Energy Business - Oil to Chemicals being the bread & butter
Reliance Retail - managed by Isha Ambani
Jio Platforms - managed by Aakash Ambani
JioStar after successfully taking it over from Disney
source: screener.in, company presentation
A market cap of Rs 19 lakh crores, the company is now a force. Hence, for us, studying this company is more than numbers but a sharp understanding of the trend.
Other than Energy business, even the company is now interested in playing the India growth story via digital and consumption theme.
Jio Platforms
Jio Platforms is now slowly emerging as a case study for many telecom companies across the World.
India’s mobile phone penetration is almost 95% at the moment. Majority of people still using feature phones. It’s only in Metro cities and Tier 1 cities that we see a widespread adoption of smartphones.
Jio leads with the telecom market share at 41%. Airtel coming second at 33%.
Hence, what they say about the India’s digital patterns become a crucial input for us.
During the conference call, the management shared the example of Mahakumbh. It just goes to show how they are able to dominate the telecom space.
This was over 660 million devotees gathering within 40 square kilometers in 45 days. And the way our network held up, and we did put in a lot of effort to make sure that the network held up during those 45 days in the Mahakumbh. It was the densest data consumption, population conversion that anybody had ever seen globally.
We were giving download and upload speeds of 200 mbps plus, 141 million voice minutes. So this has kind of become a case study for network companies, telecom companies, service providers, vendors, everybody is looking at this as a case study where these kind of global records were set in a short period of time.
Not one person complained about mobile or internet connectivity issues from Mahakumbh. It’s a great achievement to have. I personally experienced that the network connectivity was seamless.
And the greater achievement for the company should be that most of us have now taken for granted that our internet speeds will always be strong. So think about the internet speed of 200 mbps and 141 million voice minutes for a while. I cannot even put a context to it.
Constant voice and video calls to family and friends, UPI based payments, google maps for directions, some even looking after their work from hotels, so on and so forth.
This just shows that we as Indians have changed completely. Our consumption pattern is now completely different. And they will now be dominated from our phones.
Reliance Retail
Reliance’s Retail arm is slowly gaining traction. It’s now roughly 30% of Reliance Industries in value. And that’s huge to be honest.
Given India’s large population, we still need about 50 Jio Marts and 50 DMarts to have some sort of competition. At the moment, the market is open to anyone and everyone for a fair fight.
There’s always a question about quick commerce these days from the analyst tribe when it comes to people operating in this space. I wonder how they can be so naive in understanding the diversity and choices of our population from sitting in comfortable AC rooms of their high-end offices.
They somehow don’t see that people will never order everything from their phones. If that was the case, then all restaurants would’ve simply turned into cloud kitchens. But that sort of infinity never happens.
We humans crave for connection with each other. But when you have to sell your mutual fund, you can always say that one day kirana stores will go away, everything will shut down and a robot will buy groceries and food for us.
So don’t fall for such crap or trap.
The company offers its plan of action in quick commerce segment.
Thank God that it’s not 10 min delivery service. These delivery boys are putting everyone on road at risk. Here’s where the State Governments should ban the stupidity of 10 min delivery and rushing around for no reason.
JioMart has an under-30-minute quick service. The average daily orders were up 62% on a Y-o-Y basis. We have the widest network reach. We have almost 2,000 plus stores which are on the network, covering more than 4,000 plus pin codes. So this is much wider reach than any other quick commerce player.
So now, with Jio entering the race with such a wide network of stores already present, we will see a lot of CAPEX from Blinkit and Zepto.
What do the consumers want?
Low prices. Period.
If Reliance Retail can offer lowest prices and a slow delivery, people will switch. Because no one in their right minds will keep paying a premium to get something in 10 mins.
If you get something in 10 mins or 20 mins, it doesn’t really matter as long as it’s cheap. India is an extremely cost conscious country. India values value.
Story #2: Bajaj Twins set the tone for Financial Services Industry
The stock price corrected about 6% after the results were out. Many people thought that the company has come out with a negative set of numbers and hence the backlash.
In the short term, markets are always a voting machine where traders are driven by sentiments without putting the larger context into play.
Sometimes even institutional investors tend to play a bit dirty. They will create a short position in F&O segment driving the prices down and make a lot of retail traders exit the stock. It’s a classic game that never gets old.
Retail traders will basically sell the stock out of fear even when it’s 50% from his buying price and now down 5% from the highest price. Anticipation of loss creates a large fear in them.
But if you just step back and follow a simple rule - It’s the earnings of the companies that generate a long term shareholder value. You will suddenly start seeing a very different picture.
Bajaj group caters to a total customer base of 10.18 crore Indians with cross selling client base 6.45 crores. For a country of 140 crores odd Indians, this company has reached 8% of the country.
Bajaj Finserv posted a staggering Total Revenue (Consolidated) at ₹ 1,33,822 Crore, growing 21% from last year.
Analyst tribe will look at it and say just 21% and that’s where they are wrong. Because you cannot keep growing 30 to 40% year on year all the time. So yes, you need to be cautious of valuations and cannot keep paying any price for it’s growth.
Bajaj Finance’s AUM grew at 26% but what’s interesting is the actual numbers = ₹ 4,16,661 Crore as of 31 March 2025. It’s huge!
Bajaj Housing Finance grew it’s AUM at 26% as well with Rs 1,14,684 Crore as of 31 March 2025. Aavas Financiers has an AUM that’s 10% of this and yet the investors don’t seem to be paying any price for it’s growth too.
Here’s where the company tells us that growth will continue.
Fintech market has still not peaked in India. There’s a lot of disruption coming and a change in how we experience financial services.
These are the levers for the Bajaj group.
Till now, the group has kept its non performing loans or bad loans in check with its prudent lending practices. An investor should keep an eye on that number as the company continues to expand.
Long term investors must keep their prudence while buying these stocks.
Story #3: Zomato comes out with strong set of numbers
So if you’re searching for Zomato on your demat account, the name has changed to Eternal. Usually, companies don’t change their names very often with the risk of stock price decline. But we are sure that Mr Deepinder Goyal is built different and he can take risks which others usually don’t dare to.
Zomato has been doing very well for a long time now. It’s completely changed the way we order our food. We don’t remember calling any restaurant owner and placing an order with them. It’s just a few clicks and in 30 mins, we are having our food.
It’s easier, it’s efficient and just takes away the stress of lunch or dinner from our head.
In August 2022, Zomato acquired Blinkit. To us it was a defining moment because we were seeing how habits of metro cities were slowly changing. With both partners working, traffic congestions and UPI based quick payments - it was a no-brainer that we were looking at someone solving our grocery issues.
Blinkit did exactly that. It said, I can deliver your essentials to you in less than 15 mins. So don’t worry.
Now, if you need any particular item related to the food you’re preparing or forgot your toiletries or need some snacks, you don’t need to interact with the local kirana uncle and fear being judged for your lousiness. You can just order it on your App and it will come to you.
Slowly, electronics and medical supplies too are coming our way.
Zomato’s growth story is now closely tied with the fortunes of Blinkit.
In the last 6 months, Blinkit added 368 new dark stores taking a total to 1,007 stores. Now remember, Jio Mart is going to start with 2,000 stores to counter the competition.
Will this be a telecom story all over again?
Well, there’s no clear answer to this. But yes, there will be massive cash burn at both ends to acquire a price sensitive consumer.
And the company has already started feeling the heat of cash burn.
Losses are slowly mounting, primarily driven by expansion efforts; investments in infrastructure to support rapid growth from 1,000 to 2,000 stores.
But here’s a silver lining.
Food delivery GOV grew 17% YoY
Quick commerce GOV grew 120% YoY
Going-out GOV grew 191% YoY
OB2B business Hyperpure’s Revenue grew 95% YoY
Consolidated Adjusted Revenue grew 58% YoY to INR 5,746 crore, broadly in line with GOV growth.
An investor will have to embrace for some bumps in the stock prices along the way. And need a complete conviction in the ability of the management to see the company through.
Notes from Indigenous Investors
We are currently living in an India that is constantly connected by internet and smart phones. Somewhere we don’t even realise how much potential this holds for our future.
We are constantly looking at the West or China to learn about what should be our next step in policy or business outlook. That’s where some of our policy makers make the biggest mistake.
We believe that India is hungry for growth and to show out it’s true strength out there in the World. It might not be a smooth ride but it will be a legendary one.
As investors we have 2 choices - either sit in the stands and keep commenting.
Or just get on the ground, start investing and get our learnings.
We surely recommend you Option #2.